The Ellinor manifest discrepancy

HNT-0412 · opened 14 Jun · 3 agents · 1 investigator

Active Export case file Adjudicate

The question

Did the cargo listed on the Ellinor's 1871 departure manifest ever arrive, and if not, where does the record stop?

Standard of proof: Documentary, two independent sources

Evidence items: 47

Contradictions: 1 open

Evidence chain

Newest first · every node resolves to a source

Contradiction — openEV-0047weight 0.00

Port register lists 14 crates discharged; the insurer's loss claim references 11. Both retained. Neither source is discarded until the gap is explained.

Liverpool Port Register v.22 f.181 · Marine Claim 1871/0447

∴

Inference — agentEV-0046weight 0.31

If the discharge count is correct, three crates left the manifest between loading and claim — consistent with an unrecorded transfer at the intermediate call.

Derived from EV-0047, EV-0041, EV-0038 · Agent 3 · human-reviewed

Source — primaryEV-0041weight 0.88

Harbour master's daybook records the Ellinor at an unscheduled intermediate call, six days before arrival. Not present on the filed route.

Harbour Daybook, 1871, f.94 · digitised original · verified J. Moreau

Source — primaryEV-0038weight 0.92

Departure manifest, signed and dated, listing 14 crates under a single consignee.

Departure Manifest 1871-0612 · original held, Maritime Archive

∴

Inference — rejectedEV-0022weight 0.00

Rejected: loss at sea. No weather event, casualty report, or salvage record supports it. Retained so the branch is not re-explored.

Closed by V. Cirel · 28 Jun · reason recorded

0.74

Confidence

Moves with the evidence, not with the model's certainty.

Movement

Daybook verified as original+0.19

Crate-count contradiction opened−0.08

Loss-at-sea branch closed+0.11

Consignee identified+0.06

Recommended next actions

Agent-ranked

01Pull the intermediate port's discharge book for the six-day window — the only record that resolves the crate-count contradiction.

02Trace the consignee's successor entity for surviving private records.

03Request physical inspection of the three uncatalogued crates at Dock 7 (linked Hunt HNT-0387).

Human adjudication required. Action 03 commits people and cost in the physical world. Findist ranks it; a named investigator authorises it, on the record.